Saturday 13 December 2014

SUNDAY`S PREMIERSHIP PREVIEWS, STATISTICS AND PREDICTIONS


Super Sunday features one of the classic fixtures in the Barclays Premier League as Manchester United host Liverpool - our team preview the action.


One of the classic Premier League fixtures kicks off Super Sunday as these two old rivals go head to head at Old Trafford. Historically - in a Premier League sense - Manchester United have dominated but last year it was Liverpool who won both fixtures, keeping two clean sheets in the process as their opponents struggled under the guidance of David Moyes. That the only goals scored from open play across these two games came from Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge helps to underline how much has changed since and United are back as odds-on favourites across the board. From a purely form-based perspective, they deserve to be. Since losing to Swansea in the first game of the season they've dropped just two points at home - those via a draw with league leaders Chelsea - and having won five games in a row they're on their best run since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. Four of these five wins have been by just a goal, however, and they were particularly unconvincing at Southampton on Monday night when Robin van Persie scored with his side's only two shots on target. Most have been concerned with United's defence and rightly so, but there are still issues going forward and they desperately need Angel Di Maria to return; it's not clear whether he'll be fit enough to start this game but he is expected to be involved in some capacity. Liverpool meanwhile are now unbeaten in five but it'd be stretching things to say they've improved a great deal since losing the previous four games; instead this 'run' looks simply to reflect a good set of fixtures. Only for 45 minutes against a struggling Leicester side have they truly convinced and Sturridge, who remains on the sidelines, is sorely missed. In his absence goals are proving hard to come by and you'd be hard pressed to find a consistent, reliable threat among the players at the disposal of Brendan Rodgers. I wonder, then, whether we might witness a tight game bereft of the attacking quality we've come to associate with these sides and if that's the case, 11/10 about under 2.5 goals may prove a marginally better bet to United at a shorter price. Steven Gerrard will surely start here and his excellent scoring record against United - albeit one built on penalties - means prices around the 9/2 mark about him finding the net are worth considering but in truth I think Liverpool will struggle to get on the scoresheet. I'm not quite prepared to trust this United defence to keep a clean sheet but 9/4 about a home win to nil does merit a second glance. Truth be told I struggled to settle on the right option here so given that I do expect a home win I'll keep things nice and simple and back United. While not anything like fluent at St Mary's I do believe that the Red Devils are performing at a significantly higher level than their opponents right now and should Di Maria return they really should prove too good for a Liverpool side who just can't be trusted to expose obvious frailties at the heart of the United defence.
Verdict: Manchester United 2 Liverpool 0 (BC)
Opta facts:
Only Everton v Liverpool (20) has seen more red cards than Liverpool v Manchester United of all fixtures in Premier League history (15).
Steven Gerrard has scored more goals as an away player at Old Trafford than any other player in Premier League history (5).
Robin van Persie has netted six goals in his last nine Premier League appearances against Liverpool.
Only Chelsea (6) have won at Old Trafford more often than Liverpool (5) in Premier League history.
Manchester United have scored the most goals from outside the box in the Premier League this season (7).
Angel Di Maria has 20 goal assists in 2014; more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues
Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur (1600)
Spurs have lost none of their six Barclays Premier League games against Swansea and have won the last five but they haven't set the world alight this season as Mauricio Pocchettino struggles to get the best out of an expensively assembled squad. Their form on the road has been fair with three wins and two draws accompanying defeats at Manchester City and Chelsea but they face no easy task against a Swans side that is a point ahead of them in the table courtesy of a fine home record that has seen them win five and draw two of their eight games. Spurs will ring the changes following their defeat to Besiktas on Thursday in the Europa League but it will have done little for their seemingly fragile confidence, even if they are happier playing away from the Lane. Swansea have had a week to recover from their defeat at West Ham where the sending off of the now suspended Lukasz Fabianksi exacerbated the difference between the sides but Garry Monk will have been alarmed at the amount of space his defence allowed Andy Carroll. In Harry Kane, Spurs have a striker who has the ability to take advantage from similar lapses but he is far from the finished article. In contrast, Wilfried Bony is beginning to look just that as the Opta facts below detail. Given this run of scoring form and a Tottenham defence that is far from watertight, the odds against about the Ivorian getting on the scoresheet should be considered as should the general 9/2 about him netting first. Spurs aren't prolific scorers but they have notched in every away game bar their visit to Stamford Bridge which brings both teams to score into the equation but the odds for that eventuality seem no more than fair. The draw looks a definite runner but Swansea have proved inconsistent of late and Spurs have been hard to trust and predict all season long so I'm reluctant to get involved in the outright result markets. Instead I'm going to suggest a small interest on Swansea half-time/draw full-time at a decent price. The Swans have been in front at the break in four of their eight games thus far and given Spurs' propensity to concede early (as highlighted by the Opta fact below) they may be able to go in front again before being pegged back by the Londoners who scored late goals in their last two away wins at Hull and Aston Villa.
Verdict: Swansea 1 Tottenham 1 (IO)
Opta facts:
Wilfried Bony has 19 goals in the Premier League in 2014, more than any other player, and has netted seven times in his last nine.
Gylfi Sigurdsson made 58 appearances in two PL seasons for Spurs, scoring eight goals and assisting four more. In two spells with Swansea he has played 33 PL games scoring nine and setting up 11 more.
Jan Vertonghen has scored in two of his three Premier League games against Swansea.
Swansea have now thrown away 16 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season; more than any other team and with those points would be top of the table.
Tottenham have conceded six goals in the opening 15 minutes of matches this season, more than any other club while Swansea are the only side yet to concede a goal in the opening 15 minutes of a Premier League game this season.

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