SOCCERSNIPERS BRINGS YOU WEEKEND`S PREMIER LEAGUE MATCH PREVIEWS,STATS, PREDICTIONS AND EXPLICIT ANALYSIS
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (1245 GMT)
This should prove to be relatively straightforward for City despite the ongoing absence of Sergio Aguero and doubts over the participation of Edin Dzeko and Stevan Jovetic. That could hand another opportunity to Spanish starlet Jose Pozo but there is so much depth in behind the front-line that the possible lack of a recognised striker may not harm City as much as it would other sides. Frank Lampard has chipped in with some vital goals while David Silva is nearing a return to full fitness and Yaya Toure has shown glimpses of his best form. Goals at home have, surprisingly, been a problem with just 12 in the 'for' column (including four in one game against Spurs), the same number as West Ham and West Brom and fewer than QPR. Despite that, they have only dropped five points and there will be some long faces if that tally is added to despite the Eagles drawing half of their away games this season. The 1-0 scoreline (two home games and last two league games have been won by that score) is available at up to 7/1 while City are around 11/4 to win by a one-goal margin (four league wins have come that way) but Palace have scored only two goals in four games since beating Liverpool 3-1 and there have to be doubts as to how well their defence can stand up to City, with or without some of the star names. City have played some of the division's leading sides at the Etihad thus far so it may not pay to read too much into their relatively meagre goals tally. I had hoped that the injuries and lack of goals might have led to some bigger-than-usual prices in the correct-score market but that isn't the case and there's little to get excited about.
Verdict: Manchester City 2 Crystal Palace 0 (IO)
Opta facts:
Fraizer Campbell scored three goals in his two Premier League appearances for Cardiff against Man City last season.
Manchester City have won the last six games in all competitions against Crystal Palace.
Man City have won their last five Premier League games, this after winning just four of their previous nine (W4 D3 L2).
The Citizens have scored in 13 successive Premier League matches; the longest such run in the competition this season.
Man City have conceded just 18 goals in 26 Premier League home games under Manuel Pellegrini (0.69 per game).
Aston Villa v Manchester United (1500)
By hook or by crook, United are on a roll having won their last six games but they remain unconvincing away from Old Trafford and look too short to trust at Villa Park. The Villa have had a mini-resurgence of their own prior to losing their West Midlands derby at the Hawthorns where their cause wasn't helped by an early red card. It was 2009 the last time that Villa beat United and 2010 the last time that they took a point from them with the seven subsequent games seeing United outscore Villa by 21-5. For all their faults, goals are not an area in which this United side is lacking and their threat has been increased by Robin van Persie rediscovering his touch and if Radamel Falcao (in contention for a start) can do the same then their supporters could be in for a treat. This Villa side is no pushover though and this game could play to their strengths. Over the last underachieving season or two, they've been better on the road playing counter-attack football and they could get the opportunity to do so at Villa Park with United expected to make much of the running. It's been seven games since they last conceded two goals and they were unfortunate to do so in losing at home to Spurs. They will be hopeful of nicking a goal at the other end with United's defence (with the exception of David de Gea) still far from convincing. That does raise the question of backing United to win with both teams to score but Villa's attack can be trusted about as far as the opposition's defence despite the return of Christian Benteke, while the Red Devils have failed to win at Sunderland, WBA, Burnley and Leicester. They may have won their last two road trips but needed a big slice of luck to win at both Arsenal and Southampton and remain best watched.
Verdict: Aston Villa 1 Manchester United 3 (IO)
Opta facts:
Wayne Rooney has scored more Premier League goals against Aston Villa than any other opponent (12).
Aston Villa have won just one of the last 37 Premier League games against Man Utd (W1 D9 L27), including losing the last seven in a row.
Robin van Persie has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games against Villa.
Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of their last five Premier League games against Villa.
Aston Villa have lost a league-high eight points from goals scored in the final 15 minutes of Premier League matches this season.
Hull v Swansea (1500)
The Tigers last won on October 4 when beating Palace 2-0, losing five and drawing four of their subsequent nine games, scoring just four goals. Swansea may have lost their last two but they are playing significantly better than their hosts and it's hard to argue with their price tag as favourites. Wilfried Bony is in a rich vein of form having scored in four of his last five so will be relishing facing a defence without the injured Michael Dawson and the visitors will be hopeful of improving on an abject record at a venue where they haven't won since 1998 (six games). Allowances can be made for the quality of the opposition but Swansea's away record is poor and the amount of space afforded to Andy Carroll and Harry Kane in their last two games has to be a major concern. Garry Monk and his team have no doubt spent plenty of time on the training ground attempting to remedy that but it will offer encouragement to Hull's beleaguered strikers. Going low on goals looks an obvious route into the game but not one that appeals at the prices and preference is to give the visitors the benefit of the doubt but to back them draw no bet. Hull will surely find their feet soon but confidence is low and they are missing some key players, notably Dawson and Tom Huddlestone due to suspension. The draw is a definite player in a match that may well develop into a game of cat and mouse with Swansea being more pragmatic on the road (they scored with their first meaningful attack at West Ham after 19 minutes) and keeping things tighter at the back. In Bony and Gylfi Sigurdsson they have a couple of players who can make a difference in a tight game while they have pace in abundance in the form of Wayne Routledge and Jefferson Montero which is a great asset when playing on the break. I think they have enough to pinch this but if you are having a bet, I'd suggest taking the safety net of draw no bet.
Verdict: Hull 1 Swansea 2 (IO)
Opta facts:
Hull City are unbeaten in their last six league games against Swansea (W4 D2 L0).
The Tigers have won a league-low six points in Premier League home matches this season.
Swansea City have lost a league-high 16 points from leading positions this season – losing four and drawing two of the 12 PL games that they have held a lead in.
Wilfried Bony has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances. He has netted more goals in 2014 than any other player (20).
Of the 17 ever-present Premier League sides in 2014, Hull City have won the fewest points (27, 10 fewer than any other ever-present side). The Tigers have won just one of their last 15 Premier League games (W1 D7 L7).
QPR v West Brom (1500)
QPR could draw level on points with West Brom with victory at Loftus Road and the layers are certainly dangling a carrot to those who believe they can. Rangers may be languishing in the bottom three but their performances at home have been the only thing preventing them from being cut adrift at the foot of the table with their entire points tally coming on home turf. It's not even as if the Baggies have been tearing it up on their travels with two wins and two draws, scoring three whole goals and they would surely be longer if they hadn't beaten the Villa last time out. They even struggled to do that despite their city rivals going down to 10 men as early as the 22nd minute. There have been distractions for Saido Berahino off the pitch (which cost him his place in the starting XI) and he's now gone eight games without a goal which is a huge problem for Alan Irvine with only defender Craig Dawson (with two) scoring more than once in the league. Before Villa, their previous victory came at Leicester (four defeats and a draw earlier) and again arrived with a helping hand from an own goal from Esteban Cambiasso. QPR have drawn three of their last four at home - drawing the other against Man City - and can welcome Charlie Austin back to the fold after suspension. They are almost as reliant on him as Albion have been on Berahino but Bobby Zamora has proved his worth (even if he's scored just once) and the likes of Eduardo Vargas, Leroy Fer and Niko Krancjar do carry a threat even if they're not prolific. Harry Redknapp's side have improved significantly since the first weeks of the campaign as a plethora of new signings bedded in and, while they ultimately may not have enough quality to escape relegation, they are certainly in with a fighting chance. They are eighth in the table on home form alone and the 6/4 about picking up another three points rates a rattling good price - win, lose or draw!
Verdict: QPR 2 WBA 0 (IO)
Opta facts:
All 14 of Queens Park Rangers’ points in the Premier League this season have come at Loftus Road.
West Brom have won eight points from seven games away from home in the Premier League this season, despite only scoring three goals in these games.
Charlie Austin has had a hand in eight goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (six goals, two assists).
After scoring seven goals in his first nine Premier League appearances of the season, Saido Berahino has failed to score in his last seven PL apps in a row.
Southampton v Everton (1500)
At more than 2/1, Everton have to be worth a play here. Yes, it's not been a great season for the Blues but they've kept going down a bumpy road, whereas Southampton appear to have crashed off it. It's now six games without a win for the Saints, who have scored just two goals in that period. They've already lost their place in the top four, having been around the 2/1 mark to secure a Champions League spot just a matter of weeks ago. They badly need to arrest that slide but boss Ronald Koeman has plenty of problems - and they seemed to be getting to him at League One Sheffield United in midweek where the Saints exited the Capital One Cup. For this one, Dusan Tadic is injured, while Victor Wanyama, Morgan Schneiderlin and Florin Gardos are all suspended. In addition. Steven Davis and top scorer Graziano Pelle are doubtful. That's a lot of absentees, particularly in the midfield where Everton will look to dominate. Kevin Mirallas will be a big miss for the visitors but Gareth Barry will make a welcome return after missing Monday's 3-1 win over QPR. Steven Naismith is enjoying a fine season and he'll be eyeing gaps between what is lilkely to be a makeshift midfield and a backline which has started leaking goals of late. At 7/2 to score at any time, Naismith, arguably Everton's best player this term, is worthy of consideration. However, I'm going to keep things simple and side with the visitors in the win market. They may have won just two of their eight away games thus far, both against sides currently in the bottom seven. However, Southampton's form is certainly that of a side in such a predicament and Everton are more than capable of taking advantage of the problems they have right now
Verdict: Southampton 0 Everton 1 (AS)
Opta facts:
If games ended at half-time this season, Everton would be third in the Premier League table with 28 points. However, if only the second-half of matches counted, Everton would be 14th with 17 points.
Steven Naismith has scored four goals from just eight shots on target in the Premier League this season (and another were you to count his effort v QPR which went down as an own goal in the end).
Dusan Tadic has created the most goalscoring opportunities from open play than any other player in the Premier League this season (42).
Tottenham v Burnley (1500)
We took Tottenham on in midweek, admittedly a bet which didn't go well. However, even after the event I still very much agree with the argument put forward by my colleague Ben Linfoot - Spurs have been average at best this season and should consider themselves fortunate to be sitting seventh at this juncture and in the semi-finals of the League Cup. To their credit, they've shown great character to keep digging out results with late goals, although those have mainly come on the road and they will need to seriously improve their home form if they are to realise their top-four ambitions. Stoke, West Brom and Crystal Palace have all left White Hart Lane with something so far this season and Burnley have the form to add their name to that list. A run of just one defeat in six has lifted the Clarets out of the relegation zone, and the loss came at QPR, who have taken 10 points from the last 12 available at Loftus Road, so no disgrace in that. Danny Ings continues to provide their most obvious goal threat - he caused Southampton plenty of problems last weekend - and he coud be a spot of value at almost 10/1 to net the first goal given his form and the fact that Spurs have conceded first against Everton, Stoke, West Brom and Liverpool at the Lane so far. For those looking to side with Spurs, you can also get 7/1 that they come from behind to win for the fourth time in eight league games. However, I'm not convinced they will do so and think that 7/4 Burnley in the double-chance market is not a bad bet given both sides' form.
Verdict: Tottenham 1 Burnley 1 (AS)
Opta facts:
There have been 21 goals scored in the last four meetings in all competitions between Spurs and Burnley, with at least five in each game.
Tottenham have won three Premier League games that they have been behind in this season – only Chelsea have won as many.
Spurs have won a league-high eight points from goals scored in the 85th minute or later in the Premier League this season.
Burnley have won just one point in their eight previous Premier League trips to London (D1 L7). The Clarets have failed to score in six of these previous eight Premier League away games in the capital.
West Ham v Leicester (1500)
It's just one defeat in 10 for the Hammers - that coming when they were hit by injuries for a trip to Everton - while their home stats show they have picked up 16 points from a possible 18. They've been a side transformed this season with their attacking verve which I've mentioned before on these pages with Diafra Sakho a shining light up front, Stewart Downing revelling in a central role and Alex Song, now back after a recent spell out injured, a shrewd signing to help protect a defence which has looked solid. Even Andy Carroll is looking a handful again. Sam Allardyce's problem will be integrating Carroll into this new-look side but he's managed it fine so far and it's certainly a nice headache to have. This weekend they face rock-bottom Leicester, a side who have collected two points from their last 11 games, at home. I simply can't have West Ham at 8/11 to win the game. They will be the cornerstone of many an acca but I'm more than happy to get stuck into them in a single. Leicester certainly haven't given up and no-one has given them a tonking in their miserable run but the quality doesn't appear to be there and with the early-season confidence now shorn, I just can't see them living with the hosts.
Verdict: West Ham 2 Leicester 0 (AS)
Opta facts:
Kevin Nolan has scored three goals in four Premier League appearances against Leicester.
Leicester are without a win in six league meetings with West Ham United (D3 L3).
No player has created more goalscoring opportunities than Stewart Downing (50) in the Premier League so far this season.
No side have had a larger spread of goalscorers than West Ham United (12) this season in the Premier League (Chelsea also have 12).
The Foxes have not won any of their last 17 Premier League away trips to London (D3 L14).
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